Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Reyes injuries could cost him big dough

Fred Wilpon may have been right when he said Jose Reyes will not get “Carl Crawford money.”

Reyes is a dynamic player who would be worth every penny the New York Mets or some other baseball team would pay him as an elite player if only he could stay healthy. But Reyes has never been able to stay healthy. His monster 2011 season has been interrupted a second time by a hamstring injury that again forces him to the disabled list.

Any team that signs Reyes to a long-term, big-money deal is going to be making a really risky bet: that Reyes can be more durable in his 30s than he has been in his 20s. It's not my money, but I for one would not take that bet. All evidence points to baseball players peaking in their very early 30s before a steady (sometimes swift) decline in their performance.

Could Reyes still get a contract similar to the 7-year, $142 million deal Crawford pried from the Boston Red Sox? It's possible, but it seems really unlikely. Aside from his injury history, neither the New York Yankees (after signing Derek Jeter to an extension at $17 million per) nor the Red Sox (after committing big money to Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez this year) are likely to aggressively pursue Reyes in the offseason. Without one or both of those teams involved, it would be difficult to drive up the asking price.

But it's not impossible, especially if some desperate baseball team is willing to overpay for the services of a star in the hopes of putting itself on the map (witness Jayson Werth's mega-deal with the Washington Nationals). Reyes and his agents can still ask for the moon. I just don’t think he’s going to get it.

No comments:

Post a Comment